COVID THIRD WAVE SPECULATIONS by Dr. Alfreeda L.Pinto Back

Dr. Alfreeda L.Pinto

Kuntikan Ward

Homeopathic Consultant

‘Wellcare Homeopathy Clinic’

Phone: 9449300306

COVID THIRD WAVE SPECULATIONS

As India continues to grapple with the Second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, there are a whole lot of questions in our minds regarding the killer virus. One such question is whether there will be a third wave of coronavirus? Another deadly question is whether the third wave will impact children the most?

Having failed to adequately prepare for the second wave, the Health Care System has already begun its preparations with regards to the infrastructure in anticipation of a fresh surge of cases after a few months.

Let us first understand what is a ‘wave’ in an epidemic. This term is generally used to describe the rising and declining trends of infection over a prolonged period of time. COVID-19 has continued relentlessly for the past one and a half years, but in every region there have been periods of surge, followed by a relative decline. The second wave currently seems to have entered the declining phase at the national level. The Third Wave under discussion refers to a possible surge in cases at the national level and is expected in a few months.

There have been some speculations about the third wave being even stronger than the second. However, this is not something that can be predicted. Usually in any epidemic it is expected that every fresh wave would be weaker than the previous one. During the subsequent surges there would be less susceptible people because some of them would have gained immunity. This logic however has been upside down in India’s case. After the first wave, India witnessed a decline in cases for about a period of five months. The second wave was expected to be weaker than the first. But the reality that we now witness is different.

With the lessons learnt, there are predictions that the third wave might be even stronger. This assessment again may not be true, as a far greater number of people have been infected during the second wave than the first.  In addition, vaccination would also induce immunity in a larger proportion of the population. So, there should be a significantly lower number of susceptible people after the second wave. However, gene mutation in the virus can alter these calculations. The virus can mutate in ways that can make it escape the immune responses developed in the already infected people or those vaccinated. Hence, the third wave is just a possibility. It is likely to come, but the scale or the timing is not something that could be predicted. But it is not inevitable.

Now the next question of children being predominantly affected. As it is seen in the first and the second waves of the pandemic, children are least affected and if at all infected it has affected them the least. Children have usually had either no symptoms or very mild symptoms. They did not require hospitalization. But children are not immune to this infection and they can infect others. But there is not enough evidence that the third wave is going to predominantly affect children. Some speculations based on the fact that children are not immune to it as there was less infection in children during the first and second wave and another reason being that children have not been vaccinated. According to researchers, the probable reason for less infectivity and less severity among children being that the ace receptors to which the virus binds itself to the human cells are relatively less in children as compared to adults. But this reason will remain the same for a probable third wave even.

Hence , the speculations that children are more prone to infection in the third wave is not based on facts rather just theories and presumptions. It might not impact children invariably and so we should not fear. Yet, it is essential to follow covid appropriate behaviour especially those homes with children, even after the second wave declines.

Moreover, as people of faith, if we trust in the Lord, we need not fear inspite of all the negative speculations because God says in the Scriptures (Proverbs 19:24)- “A person may have many ideas concerning God’s plan for his life but only the design of His purpose will succeed in the end.” God commands us “Fear Not” because He knows the enemy uses fear to decrease our hope and limit our victories. So let’s overcome the fear and come out victorious over the probable third wave of COVID.